Tracking the leading indicators of the interest-rate and housing cycle. Updated monthly from public RBA and ABS data.
Rate cuts are the engine of the recovery trade — but inflation has to fall first. This section answers whether the door is open.
Unemployment is the load-bearing variable. These leading indicators break months before the headline — watch them, not the top-line rate.
The downturn itself — is it stalling, correcting gently, or falling hard?
A crash needs both gauges stressed together — inability to pay and negative equity. Either alone is a correction, not a crash.
Sentiment and activity surveys turn before the hard data. Rising business confidence and PMIs above 50 are early signs the labour crack may stabilise; falling ones warn before unemployment confirms.
Sources: cash rate & financial-stability figures from the RBA; labour and inflation data from the ABS; dwelling values from Cotality.
General information only, compiled from public data. Not financial advice. Figures may lag their source releases; verify against the primary sources above before acting on them.